Commissioner's odds

This might be the hardest year to handicap yet.  Nobody really stands out as a clear favorite or an egg layer, except maybe my own team.  This year's gimmick (because ya have to have one) is each team is assigned a current Phillies player in honor of baseball being just around the corner.    On to this year's odds:

Pick #1 Duke Dave

Avg Seed 4.5

Odds 5-1

Duke Dave is true to his name nabbing the top prize from Duke in the draft.  With the trend being less and less upsets Dave's sticking to lower seeds should give him some longevity but he will need Duke at the very end as his only top scorer is Boozer, the rest of the team are lower options which we all know tend to not get the rock as much in the big dance.   

Phillies equivalent = Bryce Harper (has the name, has the pedigree, has it all just has to produce and prove he isn't past his prime)

Pick #2 - Harry

Avg Seed - 5.1

Odds 10.5-1

Like Dave, my squad is all second fiddles or worse except Yaxel Foley Lendeborg of Michigan who isn't a light it up type scorer so unless UCONN reclaims their crown and makes it three of the last four, I may be looking at an off year.  I need Cal Baptist to make a run at the final four.  I also have WAY too many Big East players.  Shocker.

Phillies Player - Johan Rojas (I stink and should be suspended)  -to be clear I have not taken any PEDs.

Pick #3 - Rob & Josh

Avg Seed - 3.3

Odds  10-1

The Pritchard lads really took the low seeding trend to heart.  Problem is after round 3 they all but abandoned the main point.  Buckets.  In the last half of their draft only their 12-16 has a double digit scoring average so they have 4 single digit average players and one with a lofty 7 per game.  Unless Gayle (avgs 7.0 per game and put up 2, 4 and 4 in the Big 10 tournament and played only ten minutes in the final game) plays all 6 games, my 12-16 is going to outscore that guy.  Thanks to the low-octane approach,  I believe their fates are tied to Chrysler Labaron Philion and the Alabama Crimson Tide, which I don't see getting to the final four so I'm going to have to say this team is not a threat to take it all.  They will probably have players in the elite 8 but by then the deficit may just be too wide.  Sorry boys.  

Phillies Player - Trea Turner (Has a pedigree but may not produce in the big moment.  Lots of singles, no risking stealing a base even though the speed is there but not much power this year)

{Rob will laugh at this knowing how much I like Trea Turner}

Pick #4 - Ben  

Avg Seed 5.3

Odds  6-1

Ben had some interesting picks and went for the high flyers so if he gets some longevity he will be in it.  He will know by the end of the weekend if he is a contender or a pretender.  Pulled the Dybantsa trigger early but he just might get 60 out of him even if he only plays 2.  He also took the most interesting player in the tournament Robbie Avila of St Louis.  Also known as "Cream Adbul Jabbar:, "Milk Chamberlain" and "Larry Blurred" among other very catchy nicknames he is fun to watch so hopefully the Billikens can stick around.  Bold prediction, Ben will be leading after Round 1 after his high fliers like AJ Depantsya and Cream Abdul Jabaar light it up.

Phillies Player - Adolis Garcia (not quite sure what we will get but can light it up anytime and wow the crowd)

Pick #5 Kelly

Avg Seed - 2.8

Odds  5-1

Tom Izzo, the load-up pioneer, has crafted another of his trademark squads.  Every year on paper they look like they should flame out at first glance but every year he seems to be in the mix after the second weekend and into the sweet 16.  His average seeding is amazingly low so he should be sticking around and he seems to have been able to get some potential scorers like Mullins whose averages are a bit deceiving - I've watched this freshman take over games and put up north of 20 several times against good teams (Okay Providence is one but they were not good, granted but there were others) .  Also, I wonder if Kelly is the first ever to take both father and son with his selection of Sam Hoiberg.  Fred Hoiberg seemed like a Kelly pick for sure back in his Iowa State days.  Not sure my records go back that far (pool scoring was done back then on parchment scrolls that have been buried in a cave somewhere).   

Phillies Player - Kyle Schwarber (lots of discipline, potential pop, and production in the end)

Pick #6  Joe

Avg Seed 5.6

Odds  7-1

Joe went with a bit of a contrarian approach which may not be the wrong idea with so many focusing on low seeding.  He will need a deep run for Arkansas and his boy Acuff, who he thought was out of reach at pick 6 but was delighted to see on the board when he picked.  He's got scorers but longevity is the question mark for this squad.  He has to have Arkansas take out Arizona in the sweet 16.  Not a longshot by any stretch but the odds are against it so I have to ding him a little on that.  

Phillies Player - Aaron Nola (could be great - could lay an egg....tough to say.... beware the 4th inning)

Pick #7 Ken

Avg Seed 5.6

Odds  999,999 to one

Ken has not one one seed player and only one each from a 2 or three.  He feasted on 4-6 seeds so he should get some early points but he will need a few 4-5 games to go his way in round 2.  He did knock off a player by round 2 guaranteed by going with Nebraska and Vandy who play each other, and that is a bit early for a cannibal matchup but because I liked the scoring I moved him down from the traditional million to one.  You're welcome KK.  

Phillies Player - Alec Bohm (Because I know Ken doesn't like him)

Pick #8 Mur Jr

Avg Seed 4.9

Odds  7-1

Mur Jr grabbed three 7 seed players, two from UCLA.  He will need a nice run for UCLA obviously but he does have decent scoring so if he can work some longevity into the mix he just might be able to make a run at it.   As a Nittany Lion it had to be hard for him to pick an Ohio Stater but if he gets the 8 over 1 upset over Duke he could be sitting pretty.  Not likely but not out of reach either.  Mur Jr is by far the league leader with four eastern bloc players so he has that going for him.

Phillies Player - Orion Kerkering (closest name to eastern bloc and a guy who could get really good but has given us pause for thought in previous years)

Pick #9 Andy

Avg Seed - 4.9

Odds  5-1

As always, Andy puts together an interesting squad.  First five picks are ALL from one seeds.  Last five picks were as he said "bucket getters".  In the end he just might have a solid mix.  He's a bit tied to Florida and possibly Michigan but there are worse teams to be tied to.  He did take he who shall not be named (Bryce Hopkins) but I can't fault him too much, I might have held my nose and taken him if he didn't and he did apologize for the pick preemptively which was nice of him.  Netflix is in negotiations to make a documentary on Andy and his pool exploits over the years

Phillies Player - Christopher Sanchez (Not going to blow you away but just delivers with consistency)

Pick #10 Jim and Joe

Avg Seed  - 4.7

Odds  5-1

The Connolly Boys, Jim and Spanish Joe, have put together another solid team.  This team may have the most balance of scoring and seeding so now they just need a little lady luck.  They have two double dips in Arkansas and Virginia so getting them both to the sweet 16 would be ideal but they can't lose all 4, gotta get one of those teams to weekend 2.     

Phillies Player - Zach Wheeler (should be good, will be good, but might not get the lucky break)

Pick #11 Mur Sr (Defending Champ-een)

Avg Seed - 5.8

Odds  6-1

Big Mur, making his picks between naps, went a bit contrarian and has the highest average seeding.  He will need Rick Pitino and ST Johns to upset Duke to make sure he is in contention but if he does get that, he could be singing "Zuby doobie doo" all the way to the finals.  The Johnnies have looked good and on a mission so it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Having won two of the last three and three in total, you can never count out Big Mur.   

Phillies Player - JT Realmuto (the chicks dig Big Mur also)